winback

At-Risk priority win-back: the 14-day window that recovers your best customers

At-Risk customers are not generic dormant. They were Champions or Loyal — their CLV is 4–8× the average. Spending generic win-back on them is malpractice. This playbook is the dedicated motion.

When it fires

Trigger: customer scored Champion or Loyal in last quarter AND current visit interval > 2× rolling 6-month median AND >70% AI churn confidence. PEKO fires within 24 hours of the threshold breach.

Message copy that works

Message in 4 lines: (1) personal greeting using customer name; (2) reference their favourite SKU or table; (3) clear reason for outreach without apology language; (4) tier-appropriate token — non-monetary preferred (early access to new menu, signature dish on the house). CTA: direct booking link, not voucher redemption.

Cadence + timing

Send within 24h of trigger. Single message, no follow-up. If customer returns within 14 days, suppress from win-back for 90 days and bump tier visibility in Mini App. If no return after 14 days, downgrade to standard win-back flow.

Expected lift

Operators running this report 22–34% recovery within 14 days vs 8–14% on generic win-back. The CLV preserved per recovery is 3–6M VND vs 400–800k VND on generic — different economics entirely.

Guardrails — don't skip these

Don't send to anyone with an unresolved complaint — fix the complaint first. Don't pair with a city-wide promo (At-Risk customers attribute return to promo, not to your gesture). Don't auto-discount above 15% — this segment is loyalty-driven, not price-driven. Don't include this segment in mass broadcasts in the same week.

Want At-Risk priority configured for your venue? Book a 30-minute walkthrough.

Book a demo